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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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